The global food commodity market in 2025 has shown signs of stabilisation amid easing prices and increased production, driven by recovering supplies post-pandemic and geopolitical tensions. The World Bank's Commodity Markets Outlook projects prices to decline further into 2026, reaching their lowest in six years.
Supplies of major food commodities like wheat, corn, soybeans, and rice remain generally robust. Russia and the Ukraine produce more than 25% of global wheat. The United States Department of Agriculture, USDA, estimates larger U.S. wheat supplies for 2025/26, with global wheat prices averaging USD 249 per metric ton amid abundant exportable availabilities. Corn stocks are ample, underpinned by record harvests in Brazil and the U.S. Soybean supplies are tightening in the U.S., but Brazil is expecting a record harvest. The rice outlook points to historic highs in global supply at 767.2 million tons, fuelled by large stockpiles, though U.S. production faces reductions. These commodities, essential for food security, have exerted downward pressure on international prices due to surplus conditions.
However, amidst surplus conditions, supply chain bottlenecks pose significant risks. The Red Sea crisis, marked by Houthi attacks, has disrupted shipping, increasing travel times by up to 45% for cargo and raising freight costs, impacting food exports to East Africa and Asia. Linked to the Suez Canal, these issues have reshaped trade routes, potentially cascading into higher global food prices. The Panama Canal, recovering from the 2023-2024 drought restrictions by mid-2025, still faces water shortages, reducing transits and delaying grain shipments, as it handles key U.S.-Asia trade. These chokepoints exacerbate vulnerabilities in food trade, straining supply chains for staples.
These inefficiencies such as logistical bottlenecks, transportation delays, poor storage, as well as commodities being stolen, resulted in a staggering food loss of about USD 540bn per annum (30-40% of produced food) in 2025. This led to the USA formulating Sustainable Development Goals to halve food waste by 2030 per capita, as they realised, only increasing supply does not solve for food security. The food loss in the system due to inefficiency is significantly higher than initially thought!