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West Africa, encompassing nations like Nigeria, Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, and Senegal, remains a pivotal player in global commodity trade in 2025. The region’s economy continues to be heavily reliant on primary commodities, with exports dominated by raw materials, amid efforts to diversify trade through initiatives like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). According to recent reports, West Africa’s GDP growth is projected at 4.2% for 2025, driven by commodity exports but tempered by price volatility and import dependencies. Intra-African trade is expected to reach $300 billion, with the region benefiting from untapped export potential of up to $10 billion in processed foods, fisheries, and minerals. Primary exports from West Africa centre on energy and agricultural products. Nigeria leads in crude oil and, increasingly, refined petroleum, with the Dangote Refinery exporting over one million tonnes of diesel and jet fuel in June and July 2025 alone, helping to reduce regional fuel import reliance. Nigeria’s total exports surged to $135 billion in 2024, and are projected to grow modestly in 2025 amid stabilising oil production. Cocoa remains a cornerstone for Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, the world’s top two producers, with prices hitting $12,500 per tonne in 2024 due to weather-induced supply shortages—Ghana’s output was down 26.6% and Côte d’Ivoire’s by 22% year-on-year. Other key exports include gold from Ghana and Mali, cashew nuts from Nigeria and Côte d’Ivoire, cotton from Burkina Faso and Mali, and rubber, palm oil, and bananas from Côte d’Ivoire. Commodities account for over 50% of exports, with fuels at 22%, metals 14%, and minerals 10%. However, trends show a 6% decline in African commodity export values from 2021–2023 due to falling oil prices, whilst agricultural exports rose 34% globally. On the import side, West Africa depends on manufactured goods and essentials, with machinery and electronics comprising 20% of imports, fuels 14%, and chemicals remaining significant. Nigeria’s imports reached $88 billion in 2024, and included refined fuels, machinery, and food like wheat and corn. Côte d’Ivoire continues to import wheat, corn, soybean meal, and dairy. Sourcing has shifted to Asia (25% of imports come from there), and China in particular, up from 4% to 20% of total imports since 2000. High import costs across the region continue to contribute to inflation at 23.7% in 2024. Challenges persist with over 60% commodity export dependence exposing the region to shocks, as seen in a $25 billion drop in African commodity earnings over the decade. The outlook for 2025 emphasises diversification via AfCFTA, boosting intra-continent trade and value-added exports like refined products and agro-processing, fostering resilience in high-growth GDP nations like Senegal (10%) and Côte d’Ivoire (6%).
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