Trump 2.0 and US Trade with Africa
So, the 2024 US presidential elections have come and gone, and Donald J. Trump has emerged as the victor by a considerable margin. Not only did he win both the electoral and popular votes, but the Republican party returned significant majorities in both the Senate and the House, clearing the way for him and his team to start implementing his electoral promises and policies starting on January 20th 2025. Nothing is standing in his way. One thing you can say about Trump is that he gets things done, and we all know that he will be well out of the gates before the first 24 hours pass.
Trump 2.0 is all about looking inward - making America great again by revitalising the economy, reducing the cost of energy, getting inflation under control, stopping illegal immigration, ending global warfare, economising the scale and involvement of the government in the economy, balancing the budget, reducing debt, and making America’s citizens healthy again.
Looking outwards Trump proposes taking a tough, no-nonsense stand in global diplomacy and has stated on numerous occasions that he believes in implementing tariffs with key trading partners in order to “level the historic playing fields”. Trump states that rather than being pro-tariffs he is pro-fairness. He believes that if import duties are charged on American goods entering China, then there should be similar import duties charged on Chinese goods entering the US. Trump is also hell bent on moving as many offshore American companies back home – not just their head offices but their means of production too.
On the electoral campaign, Trump said many times that he is not looking for a blanket tariff policy covering all trade partners – he is happy to negotiate trade conditions with each country, region or continent in order of his priority. In Trump 1.0, Africa was clearly not a priority, and many fear that this attitude may prevail once again under Trump 2.0. During the next four years it’s going to be up to Africa to drive the process.
Africa’s trade relationships with the US are currently governed by the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). Since its enactment in 2000, AGOA has been at the core of U.S. economic policy and commercial engagement with Africa. AGOA provides eligible sub-Saharan African countries with duty-free access to the U.S. market for over 1800 export categories, in addition to over 5000 products that are eligible for duty-free access under the Generalised System of Preferences program. The current AGOA programme runs through to September 2025, and it will only be in the negotiation phase of its renewal or replacement when we will see how Trump intends to play his hand in Africa.
One of the key differences between Trump’s first term of office and right now is the growing strength of BRICS as a meaningful non-western alliance now challenging G20 global dominance. Globalisation is fast being replaced by regionalisation and new alliances are the order of the day. There are now nine countries in BRICS, accounting for 35% of the world economy and 45% of its current population. There are over 30 other countries also clamouring to join in. And Africa is increasingly leaning more towards the east than the west.
If Trump truly wants to make America great again, he would be wise not to ignore this powerful block with its own agenda of global relations and even its own fledgling reserve currency. There is a definite path that can be followed that is good for the US, for BRICS and for Africa. But it will be largely up to African leadership to find intelligent and creative means of moving up America’s ladder of importance. Trump has an open-door policy and will speak with anyone who shares his vision. He also is positioning himself as tough but fair in the international arena, and there are no more holy cows. Africa needs to band together and go knocking on the White House door. And as Trump himself loves to say, there really is no time like the present.
