Zambia's commodity trading sector demonstrates robust growth, driven by mining and agriculture, despite global volatility and domestic challenges. The country's economy expanded by 8.6% in the first quarter, with GDP growth reaching 4.5% year-on-year, fuelled by agriculture, livestock, and mining activities.
Mining remains the cornerstone, with copper accounting for about 75% of merchandise exports. Production surged in the first half: Q1 output reached 224,000 tons, up 30% year-on-year, while Q2 rose 17.78%. Zambia has a 1-million-ton copper annual production target, following the 820,000 tons produced in 2024. Key developments include Mercuria Energy Group’s 50-50 partnership with Zambia’s Industrial Development Corporation “IDC”, for copper trading - they shipped the first batch in July 2025.
First Quantum Minerals Ltd commissioned a $1.25 billion expansion at Kansanshi mine (once Africa’s largest copper mine) on August 19, shelving minority stake sales after a $1 billion gold-streaming deal from Royal Gold AG. Gold streaming represents a popular funding method where investors provide miners with immediate cash flow whilst securing future metal purchases, typically at fixed rates below market price. Barrick Gold Corp. is investing $2 billion to expand its Lumwana copper mine, also in the mineral-rich North-Western Province.
Cobalt and other minerals are gaining traction. Zambia, alongside the DRC, holds 58% of global cobalt-bearing copper resources. Africa's first cobalt sulfate refinery is set for commissioning by year-end, enhancing value addition. The elimination of a 15% export duty on precious stones in February boosted gemstones’ attractiveness. Significant reserves of gold, emeralds, and industrial minerals support diversification.
Agriculture rebounded with a bumper cereal harvest, reducing import needs and boosting maize exports. Zambia targets premium exports at the 2025 Osaka Expo. Soybean prices faced challenges, but overall conditions improved food security.
Challenges persist, including energy constraints and reliance on imports, though fuel stocks are sufficient for 14 days as from 21 August. Under the Eighth National Development Plan, Zambia (8NDP 2022-2026) focuses on investment, anti-corruption, and diversification into tourism and renewables. With reforms attracting significant foreign capital as mentioned in paragraphs above, the sector's outlook is optimistic, positioning Zambia as a key player in global commodity markets.