In recent months East Africa’s commodity trade landscape has been shaped by global economic shifts, regional integration efforts, and geopolitical challenges. The region, encompassing nations like Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, and Ethiopia, is navigating a complex environment marked by declining global commodity prices and strategic initiatives to bolster trade resilience.
The World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook (July 2025) projects global commodity prices dropping to a six-year low by 2026, driven by slowing economic growth, particularly in China, and an ample oil supply. This downturn impacts East Africa’s resource-dependent economies, with oil-producing nations like Uganda facing economic pressures as the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) progresses toward its 2027 export target. The 1,443-kilometer pipeline, now 64.5% complete, aims to position Uganda and Tanzania as key players in global energy markets. However, falling oil prices could dampen anticipated revenues, challenging investment in related infrastructure.
Conversely, coffee exporters like Ethiopia and Rwanda are experiencing a boost from robust global coffee bean prices. Ethiopia’s coffee exports, a cornerstone of its economy, are driving growth, supported by economic diversification efforts. Rwanda’s agricultural sector also benefits, with reforms like digitised customs and tax incentives enhancing export competitiveness. These nations are leveraging the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to strengthen regional value chains, reducing reliance on volatile global markets.
The International Commodity Summit 2025 (ICS2025), held in Cape Town from July 14-17, highlighted East Africa’s push for sustainable commodity trade. Discussions emphasised resilient supply chains and trade finance access for producers, critical for nations like Kenya, where the Africa Mercantile Exchange (AfMX) faces challenges like inadequate regulatory frameworks. The summit underscored the need for platforms like the East Africa Exchange (EAX) in Rwanda to enhance market efficiency and food security through commodity exchanges.
Geopolitical tensions, notably U.S. tariffs and South Africa’s strained relations with Donald Trump, indirectly affect East Africa by disrupting global trade dynamics. Yet, regional initiatives, such as Tanzania’s rail-sea transport upgrades with China, are improving trade logistics, facilitating commodity exports like Zambia’s significant mineral resource. As East Africa balances global headwinds with regional opportunities, investments in infrastructure and AfCFTA-driven integration will be pivotal for sustainable growth in 2025 and beyond.