Botswana and Namibia: Structural Market Shifts in 2025

In 2025, Botswana and Namibia confront significant challenges from their heavy reliance on diamonds amid a global market downturn driven by weak demand and competition from lab-grown gems. Diamonds traditionally account for over 70-80% of Botswana's exports and around 30% of Namibia's, but declining prices and production have prompted distinct adaptation strategies.

Botswana, the world's leading diamond producer by value, faces a projected economic contraction of about 1% in 2025 due to falling output. The government is aggressively pursuing diversification through its 5-year, USD 27 billion National Development Plan, accepted by Parliament in November 2025. It aims to boost in the next 5 years sectors such as mining and energy, manufacturing, agriculture, tourism and creative industries, infrastructure and financial services. Initiatives include granting new copper mining licenses to reduce diamond dependence and expanding critical minerals strategies for copper, nickel, lithium, uranium, manganese, and Platinum Group Metals (PGM’s).

Namibia experiences a milder but notable impact, with diamond mining projected to decline 4.5% in 2025, contributing to lowered GDP growth forecasts around 3%. However, a historic revenue shift has occurred: uranium and gold now dominate tax inflows for the Namibian government, as well as exports, overtaking revenue earned from exporting diamonds for the first time in history. Namibia is the third largest producer of Uranium in the world and China is the biggest buyer. To mitigate the impact of this structural shift, the Namibian government extended its diamond royalty relief (reducing royalties on export from 10% to 5% until the end of 2025, to aid Namdeb, to extend its mining operations to 2042 to preserve jobs and competitiveness amid the diamond slump, while still benefiting from booming alternative minerals.

Both nations highlight Africa's resource management evolution. Botswana's proactive, policy-driven diversification contrasts with Namibia's market-led shift toward uranium and gold, fostering greater resilience against commodity volatility in an era of synthetic alternatives.