Africa's economic landscape exhibits significant regional disparities in growth projections for 2025 and 2026, shaped by factors such as global trade uncertainties, commodity price volatility, conflicts, currency volatility and sector -specific investments. East Africa has emerged as the frontrunner, while Southern Africa trails, reflecting divergent economic structures and external pressures. South Africa has the lowest growth rate in Africa (noted that SA is also the beneficiation leader in Africa); it is currently propped up by the growth rates of Namibia, Zambia, Botswana and Zimbabwe. These projections underscore the continent's vulnerability to global shocks.
East Africa is projected to achieve robust growth of 5.9% in 2025 and 6.2% in 2026, accelerating from 4.3% in 2024. This resilience stems from economic diversification, a rising share of manufactured goods in intra-regional trade, and strong public investments in agriculture value chains and domestic energy infrastructure. The East African Community (EAC) saw intra-regional trade grow 13.1% to USD 12.1 billion in 2023, bolstering economies like Ethiopia, Rwanda, and Tanzania, which are expected to exceed 6% growth. East Africa is set to be Africa's growth engine in 2026.
West Africa anticipates steady expansion at 4.6% annually in 2026, only slightly from 4.5% in 2025 due to disruptions in Nigeria's trading partners and financial market volatility. Key drivers include the commencement of oil and gas production in Senegal and Niger, alongside agricultural value addition in Côte d’Ivoire, Gambia, Mali, and Togo, enabling over 5% growth in most countries.
Central Africa's growth is forecasted at 4.2% in 2026, up from 4.0% in 2024 despite trade uncertainties and broad downgrades. Ongoing conflicts in the Democratic Republic of Congo hinder progress, while Equatorial Guinea faces declines in hydrocarbon production and exports, exacerbating vulnerabilities in resource-dependent economies.
Southern Africa lags with 2.4% growth in 2026, down from 2.5% in 2025, marking significant downgrades from tariff uncertainties affecting Botswana and Lesotho. Depressed diamond prices, South Africa's budget challenges and Debt position further constrain the region, despite strong performers like Zambia and Zimbabwe. Enhancing intra-African trade and resilience to external shocks will be crucial for balanced growth.